Could ChatGPT launch an advertising product within the next year? The answer seems to be yes, based on internal OpenAI documents.
OpenAI appears to forecast a billion dollars in new revenue from “free user monetization” in 2026. That figure is forecast to grow to nearly $25 billion by 2029, of OpenAI’s total $125 billion projection. Putting that in perspective: In 2024, the company said it had $3.7 billion in revenue, which it expected would grow to $29.4 billion by the end of next year.
The chart. Here’s a chart (shared by Juan González Villa on X) of OpenAI’s projection of rising revenues that includes “new products (including free user monetization).” Yes, that means ads:
Why we care. ChatGPT has an estimated 600 million monthly users. The ability for advertisers to reach ChatGPT’s users represents a significant new opportunity. But converting ChatGPT into an ad-supported product will also be a huge shift.
Yes, but … Part 1. This seems like a reversal from past statements made by Open AI executives. In December, OpenAI’s Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar said:
- “Our current business is experiencing rapid growth and we see significant opportunities within our existing business model. While we’re open to exploring other revenue streams in the future, we have no active plans to pursue advertising.”
Dig deeper: How to tell if it’s real AI or just automation at a higher price
Also, in March of last year, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said, “I kind of hate ads,” adding he believed OpenAI could pay for its computational needs without resorting to ads:
- “I kind of hate ads just as an aesthetic choice. I think ads needed to happen on the internet for a bunch of reasons, to get it going, but it’s a momentary industry. The world is richer now. I like that people pay for ChatGPT and know that the answers they’re getting are not influenced by advertisers. I’m sure there’s an ad unit that makes sense for LLMs, and I’m sure there’s a way to participate in the transaction stream in an unbiased way that is okay to do, but it’s also easy to think about the dystopic visions of the future where you ask ChatGPT something and it says, ‘Oh, you should think about buying this product,’ or, ‘You should think about going here for your vacation,’ or whatever.”
- “And I don’t know, we have a very simple business model and I like it, and I know that I’m not the product. I know I’m paying and that’s how the business model works. And when I go use Twitter or Facebook or Google or any other great product but ad-supported great product, I don’t love that, and I think it gets worse, not better, in a world with AI.”
- “…it feels like there should be many more leaps forward in advertisement that doesn’t interfere with the consumption of the content and doesn’t interfere in a big, fundamental way, which is like what you were saying, like it will manipulate the truth to suit the advertisers.”
Yes, but … Part 2. In January, Altman posted on X, “Insane thing: we are currently losing money on OpenAI Pro subscriptions! People use it much more than we expected.”
The report. The data comes from internal data obtained by The Information (subscription required).
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